Economy

11 Things Worth Knowing About The Financial Crisis

Joe, from 2parse shares the 11 Things He Learned While Trying to Figure Out the Financial Crisis.

A very, very interesting read and I highly suggest that you take a look at it. My favourite ones include:

2. The Martingale. Wall Street fell for a 400 year old sucker bet, the martingale. You always win in this betting game – as long as you can cover your losses. But once your losses are too great, this “double-or-nothing” game leads to catastrophe. The formula to understand this is simplified as:

(0.99) x ($100) + (0.01) x (catastrophic outcome) = 0

In other words, playing for $100, there is a 99% chance that you will make at least $100 dollars playing this game. But there is a 1% chance of a catastrophic outcome. If you never stop betting, the catastrophic outcome is inevitable.

A very succint, but not quite accurate way of looking at things. It’s much more delicately laid out in the Slate article he links to but a very interesting fact indeed.

7. The Shadow Banking System. Existing alongside the regulated banking system is what is called a shadow financial system – including money market accounts, hedge funds, investment banks, and countless other financial creatures. This system was invented in order to avoid government regulation of various sorts. This crisis has been mainly but certainly not exclusively in this shadow system – and those regulated banks have been the big winners in all of this (aside from Goldman Sachs.) Even the remaining independent investment banks – Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have chosen to be subject to greater regulation. Nouri Roubini speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations explained that the shadow banking system is on the verge of collapse because of their lack of transparency and because they took risks they would not have been able to if they were subject to regulation.

As usual, we have those trying to circumvent the rules for peoples happiness and safety screwing it all up for everyone.

And don’t miss his #11: Damn it feels good to be a banksta!

Douglas Throws Down

photo credit: benchilada

Sir Roger Douglas has thrown down a challenge to Clark/Key.

The page itself, although fairly content-free, is a pretty accurate picture of the ACT party. Namely, “We stand for this, this and this. Don’t like it? Too bad”. And to be honest it’s quite refreshing to see political figures stick to their policies and eat the concequences. If people don’t like your policies, you don’t get in. It should really be that simple, which is why the National Party make me nervous when they don’t announce policy, or announce only the popular policy. I sometimes get the feeling we’re being lined up for the bait-and-switch, especially when Key squirms.

Anyway, on to Sir Roger and the ACT Party:

“As such, I am challenging them to answer three simple questions:

“Of my reforms, which do you think have been bad for New Zealand and which would you yourself not have implemented?

“If you have the courage of your convictions, why have you not reversed those policies – or even promised to reverse them?

“Will you, in fact, be reversing them – and, if so, when?”

Now, me economics numpty in comparison to Sir Roger, but I imagine that damn near anything would be better than the mess that was left behind by Muldoon. The economy needed a severe kick in the pants and he was wearing the boots. Lange’s government unleashed him to shake it all up and decant the cruft left by the previous incumbents.

Good things:

• GST to replace the dizzying amounts of different sales taxes
• Cut the marginal tax rate by half (!) from 66c
• Other changes, most notably to do with super funds

Then it seems he got a little carried away after the next election…

Bad things:

• Sweeping privatisations of almost all government-owned assets
• Flat income tax rate in the low 20% range (!)

Of course, Lange lead a Labour government and couldn’t enact his promises with such a financial regime, so long story short, Douglas was out on his ear. After a scuffle with Douglas, Lange resigned and the party disintegrated. Some went towards Alliance/Progressive, some to Vision 2020, now known as ACT.

Douglas appears to have great plans, should he score the cabinet post nobody wants him to have (even the National Party). Those plans indicate that he wants the same ol’ Rogernomics, in a new New Zealand. Nobody denies what he did for our country when we needed it, however to decide that we need it now is simply delusional.

Disclaimer: I was but a child during Rogernomics and Ruthenasia so this article is based on research I’ve done and not so much first hand experience